量化分析:新币上合约是见顶信号吗? | BitMEX Blog

量化分析:新币上合约是见顶信号吗? | BitMEX Blog

Table of Contents


introduction

In the current market tournament, it became important to study the effect of the price of permanent contracts (PERPS) on the newly launched altcoins. Traders generally believe that news related to a new currency means the higher signal.

The reason behind this assumption is convincing-usually the ICS is launched with very high assessments, and the entry of the permanent contracts market for merchants allows these assets with the provision of capitalists in the early stage with a hedge mechanism.

But is this traditional view supported by data?

In this report, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of all the distinctive symbols of the permanent contract launched on the main central stock exchanges (Bitmex, Binance, Bybit and OKX) from early 2025 to March 18, 2025.

By studying price trends and forms of exchange, this article aims to provide merchants with operational visions about newly launched permanent contracts.

Summarize

  • The Bitmex Coin Sizing list shows the ability to choose an excellent currency: Bitmex has more menus (58.33 % lists) that were estimated after the first day, and these “winners” showed much higher returns – among all the analyzes analyzes, the average Bitmex profits (62.55 %), medium profits (23.21 %) and maximum profits (296.44 %) rank high.
  • The performance of the first day price varies by exchangeIn bitmex, only 41.7 % of permanent contracts reached the highest price on the first day of trading. This is in sharp contradiction with 70.83 % of OKX and 50 % of Binance has reached its highest level ever on the first day.
  • Most of the new coins will reach their peak within one week: For symbols that continue to be estimated after the inclusion, most of them reach the highest price in the first week (Bitmex: average 6 days).

When will the new menu currency reach the highest historical point? The first day theory is at its peak

As we mentioned earlier, most merchants believe that the newly launched permanent contract has reached the highest price on the first day of its launch. Is this a common phenomenon among the main central exchanges?

The theory of the first day at its peak: the differences between exchanges

The data shows that there are major differences in whether the distinctive symbols on each exchange reach the highest historical price (ATH) on the first trading day:

  • Okx: 70.83 % of the symbols arrived at ATH on the first day of the inclusion, which confirms the theory of peak on the first day
  • Binance: 50.00 % of symbols reach ATH on the first day, which indicates an ideal degree
  • Portrait: 41.67 % of the symbols arrived at ATH on the first day, which is different from the traditional view
  • Pipe: 40.82 % of the symbols arrived at ATH on the first day, which is also different from the theory of peak on the first day.

OKX is strongly compatible with the theory of “the first day”, more than 70 % of the listed coins reached the highest price on the first day. Binance shows a common class, while Bitmex and Bybit have different views on the list of coins from traditional perspectives – most of them still have positive prices after the first day.

This difference shows that the factors for exchange greatly affect the performance after the inclusion.The OKX menu appears to have an initial interest for users or may attract more sellersWhile Bitmex and BYBIT currencies on the list show a more sustainable upward momentum.

The capacity and time period of the new permanent contracts

The size of the increase

Various central exchanges show clear differences in the symbolic increase after the added value after the currency is included:

  • PortraitThe average increase from the initial price to the highest price to 62.55 %
  • OkxThe average increase was 31.31 %, second ranking
  • Binance: The average increase is 25.10 %
  • Pipe: The lowest average increase, at 17.02 %

The average increase in the new permanent contract list tells a more convincing story:

  • Portrait: 23.21 % (significant increase at the top average average)
  • Pipe: 4.37 %
  • Binance: 1.02 %
  • Okx: 0.00 % (it indicates that more than half of the currencies does not exceed the initial price)

While OKX has relatively few “winners”, those who succeed in much better performance than others.

Bitmex does not have a high percentage of coins that are estimated after the first day, but these coins also show very strong and stable gains.

Time period: Most coins peak within one week

When the symbols are estimated after inserting, what time does it take to reach the highest price?

  • Binance: The average is 5.00 days, an average of 0.50 days
  • OkxAverage 4.67 days, average 0.00 days
  • PipeAverage 5.24 days, average 1.00 days
  • PortraitAverage 7.14 days, average 6.00 days

Data show that all exchanges in central distribution in the early stage – most symbols reach the highest historical prices during the first week of trading.Although it may take a little longer to reach the highest price, the higher returns usually justify long -term holdings.

In our analysis, Bitmex appears and shows many of the main advantages that distinguish it from its competitors:

Excellent currency selection capacity

The BitMex menu showed the strongest prices for all the exchanges analyzed:

  • The highest average increase: 62.55 % (double the second highest exchange)
  • Average average increase: 23.21 % (5 times higher than optimal level exchanges)
  • The highest and largest increase: 296.44 % (such as PI)

This continuous distinction indicates that the process of selecting Bitmex and the market structure may be particularly favorable for continuous prices.

The best contracts on bitmex

Many currencies launched by Bitmex made great gains:

  • Bay: 296.44 % increase in 6 days
  • IP: 281.60 % increased in 14 days
  • Trumpov: 135.52 % increase in two days
  • AIXBT: 104.53 % increase in two days
  • the prison: 95.03 % increase in two days

The diversity of these high -performance assets in various fields (technology, politics, and metal coins) show Bitmex’s ability to determine promising projects in different categories.

Although 41.67 % of the BitMEX coins are peak on the first day, 58.33 % continued to estimate. This balance provides opportunities for two types of people:

  • Traders looking to pick up the initial excitement of the inclusion
  • Investors who prefer to monitor the behavior of the initial market before entering the market

Average time to reach the peak peak prices slightly longer (7.14 days) compared to other exchanges, indicating that the process of discovering prices is more powerful and may lead to more sustainable gains.

Any exchange chooses a better opportunity to list coins?

The new code study usually has different time schedules depending on the stock exchange. During the analysis period, many symbols were launched on each stock exchange at different times, allowing us to make direct comparisons:

This direct comparison shows that Bitmex often outperforms other exchanges on the same assets.Especially for symbols such as Trump and Bayra, which leads significantly differently.This indicates that the market structure in Bitmex and liquidity dynamics may provide advantages for certain types of assets.

Special circumstances: the exclusive currency list on the stock exchange

For the distinctive symbols listed on one exchange (referred to here as the exclusive exchange menu*), it appears that the performance of the insertion currency varies from the stock exchange to the stock exchange.

*Please note that the exclusive Exchange lists in our analysis also include the same currency launched on different dates.

The data shows that the performance of the exclusive listing of OKX is different from the performance of the stock exchange of the stock exchange. Although 70.83 % of OKX menus reached the highest price (ATH) on the first day, only 50 % of their exclusive lists like this. This indicates that the exclusive symbols of OKX may have a better estimate after listing.

Bitmex has a large number of exclusive lists (11 in the analysis period), and the characteristics of their performance are similar to their total lists. This indicates that the quality of the currency included in Bitmex remains consistent, regardless of whether the original is unique to its platform.

The most prominent performance of the exclusive Bitmex insertion is the PI (PI), which has achieved an amazing increase of 296.44 % in only 6 days, until it exceeded the impressive increase of 212.73 % in the Pi-Usdt-Swap on OKX.

The strategic effects of merchants

Based on this comprehensive analysis, many trading strategies for specified exchanges appeared:

Trading strategies for specified exchanges

  • Portrait: 58.33 % of the listed currency is estimated after the first day, along with the highest average and average gains, it may be a strong strategy to keep for a week. The option is
  • Okx: Looking at the sale of most coins on the first day, but be aware of the prices of negative money in particular, which may be a possible indication that the symbol has broken the direction
  • Pipe: Most of the coins that are estimated after the first day, indicating that the “retaining for a week” may be useful
  • Binance: Due to the distribution of the balance, it is recommended to explore other indicators outside the stock exchange to direct trading decisions

It’s time to look

For those merchants who want to estimate the symbols after the trading list:

  • The best detention period for most estimated currencies is 1-7 days.
  • Bitmex menu may benefit from a slightly longer detention period (average 6 days to the highest price)
  • Long -term holding (more than two weeks) rarely acquires an additional bullish.
  • After the first week, the possibility of capturing the highest price decreased sharply.

In conclusion

This analysis reveals that while about half of the new listed metal currencies reached their highest historical levels (ATH) on the first day of launch on each stock exchange, there are major differences in exchanges that merchants can exploit.

BitMEX highlights a distinct exchange for launching the new currency, providing the highest average average and average prices between the analyzed stock exchanges. The balance rate at its peak on the first day and its continuous appreciation provides opportunities for various trading strategies, and shows its consistent and strong performance between the various assets a strong market mechanism.

For merchants looking to increase returns in new cryptocurrencies, Bitmex provides a more attractive option with potential returns higher than Binance, OKX and Bybit. The stock market’s ability to generate superior returns for new symbols on different indicators shows that traders interested in new cryptocurrencies deserve more attention.

Data confirms that the theory of traditional peak on the first day does not apply globally to all exchanges. Although OKX fits this style strongly, Binance shows an equal distribution, while Bitmex and Bybit are opposed to this (most of the metal currencies listed are estimated after the first day).

For merchants, these results emphasize the importance not only to consider assets that are online, but also the specified exchanges and primary market conditions that are being done. By including these factors in the analysis, merchants can create more complex strategies for this changing response to the markets constantly to include new cryptocurrencies.

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