Bitcoin (Bitcoin) is trading at $101,328 as of press time, erasing the 2.3% rebound that briefly pushed the price to $103,885 a day earlier.
This breakdown confirms on-chain data about fading demand momentum, long-term holders selling into weakness, and the market testing structural support last seen during mid-cycle corrections.
Two consecutive drops below $100,000 on November 4 and 5 add to what the on-chain data suggests.
According to A Reports November 5 by Vitreous nodeThe path back to the uptrend requires two clear reversals.
First, U.S.-traded Bitcoin ETF inflows should turn net positive after two weeks of daily outflows of between $150 million and $700 million.
Second, the price should recover the owners’ short-term cost basis of $112,500 and hold it as support.
Without both reversals, Bitcoin risks sliding towards the price achieved for active investors near $88,500, a level that has historically seen deeper corrective phases.
Structural collapse
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $112,500, which is the average holding price for coins that have been held for less than 155 days. This threshold is important because when prices trade below cost basis, short-term holders incur unrealized losses, and selling pressures increase.
The current 11% discount from this level is historically deep enough to invite further decline if support does not materialize.
At the $100,000 level, approximately 71% of the circulating supply remains in profit, which puts the market near the lower end of the 70% to 90% equilibrium range that is typical during mid-cycle slowdowns. This area often produces short relief rallies towards the cost basis for holders in the short term, but a sustainable recovery requires long-term consolidation and renewed demand.
If selling pushes a larger share of supply into loss territory, the market risks moving into a deeper bearish phase.
The relative unrealized loss, which represents total unrealized losses as a percentage of market capitalization, is currently 3.1%, well below the 5% threshold typically associated with panic-driven selling.
The 2022-2023 bear market pushed this measure above 10%. The current reading indicates an organized reassessment, not surrender, but the protective cover is weak.
Quiet distribution from long term owners
The surprise was the behavior of its long-term carrier. Since July 2025, this group has lost nearly 300,000 Bitcoins, reducing the supply from 14.7 million to 14.4 million.
Unlike previous dividends when experienced investors were selling aggressively during rallies, they are now selling weakly as prices fall, a behavioral shift that signals fatigue and low conviction.
When accounting for new maturities, which are coins older than 155 days, the spending becomes more apparent.
Long-term holders have spent about 2.4 million BTC since July, with new maturities offsetting much of the outflow. Excluding maturity periods, spending represents approximately 12% of circulating supply.
This represents significant sell-side pressure operating beneath the surface.
ETF flows turned negative, derivatives signal caution
Institutional demand has slowed sharply. US-based Bitcoin ETFs have recorded flat net outflows over the past two weeks, in contrast to strong inflows during September and early October that supported price resilience.
The recent trend indicates a shift towards profit taking and a decline in appetite for new exposure.
Spot market activity tells the same story. Cumulative volume delta bias has turned negative across major exchanges. Binance The total spot CVD was recorded at negative 822 BTC and 917 BTC, respectively, indicating continued net selling pressure.
Coinbase It remains neutral at a positive price of 170 BTC, showing little buy-side absorption. This deterioration reflects a slowdown in ETFs, suggesting that rallies are being offset by rapid profit-taking.
In perpetual futures, the trend premium fell from $338 million per month in April to about $118 million. This is the interest that long-term traders pay.
The move indicates a widespread unwinding in speculative positions, as traders reduce directional leverage, preferring neutrality over extreme long exposure.
Options markets are strengthening the defensive tone. Selling demand remains high, with traders paying premium prices to protect against further declines rather than setting reversal positions.
Short-term implied volatility rose to 54% during the sell-off before falling by about 10 points of volume once support was formed.
Premiums have risen at $100,000 as fears grow that the bull cycle may be coming to an end.
Even as Bitcoin stabilizes, premiums remain high. Flow data indicates that trader activity is primarily characterized by negative delta positioning, with puts bought and calls sold. Defensive environment is favored over risk, with no clear catalyst for upside.
Two somersaults are required.
Bitcoin breaking below the cost basis for short-term holders and stabilizing at around the $100,000 level is a crucial turnaround.
The correction reverses the previous mid-cycle slowdown, with supply remaining in the majority and unrealized losses contained.
However, ongoing distribution to long-term holders and continued ETF outflows underscore weak conviction.
The market remains in a fragile equilibrium: oversold but not panicked, cautious but structurally sound. The next directional impetus depends on whether renewed demand can absorb continued distribution and reclaim $112,500 as solid support, or whether sellers maintain control.
Until ETF flows turn net positive and the price reclaims $112,500, the bulls lack the ammunition to reverse the structural weakness. These two reversals decide whether this correction will end or deepen.
