As the week began, the price of XRP saw a 4% decline, leaving it roughly 50% below its all-time highs. However, analysts are forecasting big gains for one of the market-leading altcoins in January 2026, citing three major catalysts that could reshape the market outlook.
A big step towards wider access
Recently analysisSam Daodu, a market expert from 24/7 Wall St., emphasized the importance of Vanguard’s decision to approve trading of XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Dawodu stressed that the real importance lies in facilitating distribution; With Vanguard advisors being able to allocate XRP exposure through regulated ETFs without cumbersome additional processes.
He pointed out that there are three interconnected factors at play now: the flow of institutional capital through ETF investmentsThe decline in supply and the impact of Vanguard changed the approach to the asset.
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Notably, the results of the launch of the token ETF have already been notable, with XRP inflows reaching $1 billion within the first four weeks of trading, making it one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrency ETFs to date.
Additionally, the supply in the XRP market has shrunk dramatically, falling by 45% from about 3.9 billion tokens at the beginning of 2025 to about 1.6 billion by December.
This contraction can be attributed to large holders refraining from distributing their coins, resulting in whale wallets piling up and removing tokens from liquid markets due to… Custody of ETFs.
This reduction in supply means that smaller flows now carry a greater impact. With only 1.6 billion tokens available on exchanges, $20-30 million worth of investments in daily ETF purchases can have a material impact on market supply.
A major driver of price appreciation
The launch of the Vanguard XRP ETF is particularly significant in this context, as it secures tokens Organized guard vehicles Which are less likely to sell frequently.
Unlike cryptocurrencies held on exchanges that can be transferred in and out quickly, custodian ETFs tend to encourage a buy-and-hold strategy, fostering the conditions for a gradual rise in prices fueled by continued institutional demand amid diminishing available supply.
Given that the decision to provide access to ETFs came late in the year, year-end trading typically focuses on maintaining existing allocations rather than creating new positions.
While the ETF adds credibility to XRP without causing immediate pressure on prices, it… Trip to $3 rating By January it will depend on how quickly advisory capital is mobilized, how long the supply pressure persists, and the overall stability of the markets.
XRP price path to $3
There are three possible scenarios that present themselves for the future of XRP. The most optimistic scenario sees advisory capital moving faster than usual, which could allow advisors to consolidate small XRP allocations during the January rebalancing.
In this case, XRP ETF Inflows It could remain strong, ranging from $40 to $60 million per day, while the supply held on exchanges supports a price increase that could see the XRP price surpass $2.25, target $2.60, and possibly test $3 by the end of January.
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The centrist perspective suggests a more traditional institutional timing. In this scenario, while access to XRP ETFs will gain attention in December, actual allocations may gradually increase, resulting in a daily inflow of $20-30 million instead of the previously expected pace.
Here, XRP price could make new lows and break through the $2.25 mark resistance Between $2.40 and $2.80. Price fluctuations will focus more on future adoption rather than on immediate impacts.
According to Dawodu’s conclusions, under these circumstances, it may take until the first or second quarter of 2026 for XRP to reach $3 rather than an immediate milestone.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
