Bitcoin Price Drops 3% As Grayscale Predicts ATH In 6 Months

Bitcoin price fell 3% over the past 24 hours to trade at $86,331 as of 3.45am AEDT with a 19% increase in daily trading volume to $46.4 billion.

The drop in BTC price comes as asset manager Grayscale says Bitcoin is still in a bull market and could reach a new all-time high (ATH) within the next six months.

JUST IN: Grayscale Says Bitcoin Could Hit All-Time Highs in 2026 as 4-Year Cycle Pattern Breaks

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Grayscale argues that the current correction, which has seen Bitcoin fall more than 30% from its peak, is consistent with normal pullbacks in a bull market and does not signal the end of an uptrend.

The company expects demand for “alternative stores of value” to rise as governments suffer from high debt and long-term inflation risks. Background favors Bitcoin over fiat currencies

The asset manager also believes the classic four-year half cycle is fading, with institutional flows and exchange-traded products now playing a greater role in driving prices.

Grayscale highlighted a clear shift in the US regulatory climate over the past two years as well, including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the passage of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins.

The company expects Congress to go further in 2026 with bipartisan legislation for the cryptocurrency market structure. This would “promote blockchain-based financing” in US capital markets and attract more professional investors

Bitcoin price is slipping below the moving averages

On the daily chart, Bitcoin Deals Below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which are congregating near $95,000 and $108,000.

This setup shows that the bears are still in control of the short-term trend. The 50-day SMA is now acting as nearby resistance as well, and the 200-day SMA is limiting any stronger bounce.

The Fibonacci retracement plotted from the October high near $126,270 to the March low shows that the price is hovering above the 0.618 retracement zone near $94,000 and has now turned lower, pushing Bitcoin towards a broad support range of roughly $74,500 to $86,000.

The latest candles show repeated rejection near $95,000 and the highest levels since November, confirming the medium-term downtrend. They also show that selling momentum slows as the price moves deeper towards support

BTCUSD analysis source: Tradingview

Bitcoin technicals are neutral to bearish but no longer extreme. The daily RSI is near 36, just above the oversold zone. This suggests there is limited room for a strong pullback before dip buyers return.

Meanwhile, the MACD line is below the signal line and in the negative zone. However, the chart bars are flattening, which is a signal that downward momentum may be losing steam

If Bitcoin stabilizes above the lower support area near $74,500 and the RSI starts to rise, a rebound towards the 50-day SMA around $95,000 looks possible over the next few weeks.

A clean breakout and daily close above this level would open the door to a move towards $106,000 and then the previous high near $126,000, in line with Grayscale’s view that a new all-time high could be reached in about six months.

However, if the bears push Bitcoin decisively below $74,500, the market could see a deeper correction, shaking the late bulls ahead of a longer-term recovery.

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