Could BTC Fall Back to the $37K LTH Zone?

Bitcoin is trading near $108K after falling below the STH cost basis. Analysts are eyeing $37K support from LTH as retail sales rise and whales accumulate.

Bitcoin is trading at around $109,000 with modest movement over the past day. The weekly chart is still showing a broader pullback, and recent data points suggest the pressure may continue.

Analysts monitor historical support levels, especially those associated with on-chain cost metrics.

The focus is on achieved price levels

Bitcoin fell below its short-term holder realized price (STH), which stands at $113,250. The realized price for a long term holder (LTH) is much lower, near $36,910. In past sessions, when BTC lost the STH level, it often moved lower towards the LTH price. This pattern appears during large corrections.

Ali Martinez noted,

Historically, when Bitcoin $ Bitcoin If the STH price breaks below the achieved price, it tends to fall below the LTH achieved price as well, which now stands at $37,000. pic.twitter.com/HM4RuypxXp

– Ali (@ali_charts) October 23, 2025

While Bitcoin remains well above the $37K range, traders are tracking this area as a potential target should the selling deepen. So far, there is no sign that the LTH area is under threat, but the setup matches previous bearish phases.

Retail sales on Binance rise

CryptoQuant data shows a rise in selling activity from retail traders. On October 22, about 13,000 bitcoins were sold on Binance, worth about $1.4 billion. This was the second large wave in one week, after a similar event on October 17.

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Amr Taha books,

“This represents the second major selling wave in a week.”

The maximum realized STH, which reflects the value held by short-term bondholders, fell from $15.2 billion to $2.2 billion in eight days. This indicates that many have exited their positions, locked in losses or transferred assets. At the same time, long-term portfolios appear to be increasing their holdings, a pattern often seen during retail-induced declines.

The main demand area is stable

Bitcoin is still trading above a long-term support area between $108,000 and $110,000. This level has served as a norm in previous market slowdowns. The 21-week moving average is near the same range, which could increase current support.

On the daily chart, the price is showing early signs of building a higher low, which is marked by an upward line from the recent candles. React Capital He said This is nothing but “Very tentative“Development. A strong move is needed again above $114K to change the momentum. For now, BTC remains range bound.

Traders are watching the CPI and macro news

Short-term moves may depend on upcoming data. Ted He said,

“If the CPI comes in higher than expected, expect more pain ahead.”

A weaker inflation reading could help risk markets. Elsewhere, technical traders male There is a bullish divergence and a golden cross on the 12-hour chart. Bitcoin still holds the lower end of its recent range after the rejection near $114,500.

Meanwhile, some major Bitcoin holders are as well Moving Money in spot ETFs, seeking better access to traditional financing while avoiding taxable events. Analysts at VanEck Named This part of “Liquidity-driven mid-cycle reset“In a recent note.