A16z Partner’s Ten-Year Advice: In the New Cycle, Just Focus on These Three Things

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Original Title: Preparing for the Pitch with Arianna Simpson

Original Author: a16z crypto

Original Compilation: Portal Labs

In the world of Web3, cycles are not an accident, but the norm. The alternation of bull and bear markets resembles the tides of capital as well as the seasons of nature. For founders, the biggest challenge has never been predicting the next reversal, but rather how to survive the ups and downs and even build long-term value against the tide.

Recently, a16z crypto partner Arianna Simpson shared her experiences from over a decade of investing in the crypto industry on a podcast. From the shock of the Bitcoin white paper to the product-market fit of stablecoins, the overlap of Crypto and AI, and advice for founders.

These observations and experiences are not only applicable to Silicon Valley. In the view of Portal Labs, they also provide valuable insights for Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors in China.

The Nature of Cycles

Arianna’s entry into crypto began over a decade ago when she was first shocked by the Bitcoin white paper. However, what truly kept her engaged was not that moment of excitement, but the ups and downs she experienced over the following ten years. She witnessed the birth of Bitcoin, the boom of DeFi, the frenzy of NFTs, and also experienced the subsequent bubbles and cooling periods. It was through this long-term observation that she gradually formed a clear understanding: the crypto industry has never grown linearly, but rather advances in violent waves, with emotions and capital ebbing and flowing.

As a result, she shifted her focus from “predicting the next wave of trends” to “identifying who is building against the wind.” Her investment approach resembles a form of following: following what the best founders are doing. When the strongest founders flock to stablecoins, capital should converge there; when cutting-edge teams continue to invest in Crypto × AI or DePIN, new value gaps often emerge. It is not about having grand theories first and then finding projects to validate them; rather, it is about calibrating one’s worldview and capital allocation based on the directions of frontline builders.

For Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors, this methodology is more actionable than “cycle prediction.” For founders, the cooling period is not an excuse, but a form of screening: being able to push products and stacks forward in years without applause indicates that both the direction and the people are right; for allocators, what truly needs to be assessed is not the popularity of themes, but whether the team can maintain speed, discipline, and mission density during difficult years. This sequence of “identifying people—looking at long-term execution—then discussing valuation” can transcend any short-term narrative.

Stablecoins

Narrowing the focus to stablecoins, Arianna’s judgment is straightforward: it has become the current focal point not because of new speculative stories, but because both ends are genuinely using it—consumers use it for cross-border transfers and to hedge against local currency fluctuations; businesses use it for settlements, allocations, and accounts receivable/payable bridges. More critically, in the past year and a half, the two foundational infrastructure “valves” of speed and cost have finally been opened, allowing stablecoins to transition from an imagined payment network to a real settlement layer.

This point directly resonates with Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth individuals. For overseas teams, the real bottleneck is often not the product, but the flow of funds: how to send money to Southeast Asia’s designated teams, Africa’s node maintainers, and Latin America’s channel partners in a stable, low-cost, and traceable manner; how to enable overseas clients to complete payments without complex corporate processes; how to manage periodic receivables in a dollar environment and control exchange rate risks in a local currency environment. The value of stablecoins lies not in the “coin,” but in the “track.” When you standardize the processes of fund inflow and outflow, identity verification, reconciliation receipts, and tax traces onto an auditable track, the complexity of cross-border business will significantly decrease.

Of course, there will be more issuers, but users will not pay for every new symbol. Arianna’s intuition is that in the short term, there will be a proliferation of options, but in the long term, it will converge to a few “scalable, reputable, and ecologically positioned” stablecoins; further down the line, the front-end experience will become abstracted, and users will hardly perceive specific currencies, while the back-end will automatically complete clearing and settlement through “track interoperability.”

This means that for the upcoming construction of stablecoin directions, teams should not expend energy on the impulse of “I also want to issue one,” but should focus on more pragmatic designs, such as how to thoroughly “native-stabilize” your business processes, risk control, and financial systems. When your product can naturally operate on a path of dollar pricing, stablecoin settlement, and on-chain reconciliation, your cross-border efficiency and credibility will stand out among peers.

For high-net-worth individuals, stablecoins are a new cash management tool and a “low-friction channel” for global liquidity. However, this does not equate to no risk; at the portfolio level, reserving an on-chain track for “liquidity turnover” and “hedging local currency fluctuations” is a more future-oriented portfolio hygiene. In simple terms, two principles: carefully choose counterparties, diversify custody and wallets; make “compliance and explainability” the first constraint, rather than a last-minute fix.

Crypto × AI × DePIN

Arianna emphasizes that super cycles are often not driven by a single technology, but rather by several curves resonating within the same time window. The clearest combination today is the decentralized incentives of crypto, the centralized computing power and data hunger of AI, layered with the real-world resource orchestration of DePIN.

Translating this into a “practical” language for Chinese founders: we have rare long-term accumulations in hardware supply chains, manufacturing and deployment, and engineering organization of edge nodes. If you can use stablecoins to connect the chain of “contribution—measurement—payment” to incentivize real-world data and resources to go on-chain, and then package these resources into standardized products consumable by AI (datasets, annotations, bandwidth, storage, inference time slices), you have the opportunity to create a “supply-side platform.” This is not a PPT-style token economics; it is serious operations: defining metrics, anti-cheating measures, settlement frequency, dispute resolution, reputation systems—all need to be engineered.

Another important thread is “authenticity.” The existence of deepfake content is not terrifying; what is terrifying is an unverifiable environment. Verifiable timestamps, generation paths, device signatures, and traceability of operational entities are the “new water, electricity, and coal” of the future content and goods internet. This presents immediate increments for Chinese teams engaged in brand overseas expansion, second-hand trading, and luxury goods circulation. Do the difficult yet correct things: make “verifiability of authenticity” the default rather than an optional add-on.

Looking at AI Agents, giving a credit card to a semi-mature agent for “self-service online shopping” is irresponsible; however, providing it with a wallet that has limits, can be revoked, and is auditable, allowing it to complete a set of tasks (subscriptions, purchasing APIs, paying commissions) within a clear strategy, is realistic and feasible. In other words, “the wallet is the permission system.” The real application is not an exaggerated “universal agent,” but a vertically deep “bounded rationality agent”—binding permissions, budgets, logs, and counterparties together using on-chain wallets within a strongly constrained business domain.

Financing and Governance

The financing environment of 2020-2021 may have left many in Web3 with the illusion that decks and models were unnecessary, and that investors would offer outrageous terms via Twitter DMs.

Arianna states plainly: that was a “mirage at twilight,” not the norm, and today we should return to the basics. Prepare usable materials, honestly present metrics, and set financing goals at conservative yet achievable positions; it is better to close a reasonable round first and then snowball, rather than starting with $50 million and ending up with nothing.

For Chinese founders, a more realistic sequence is: first, get the foundation running, then talk about money. First, the engineering resilience of technology and products, performance, risk control, observability, and operability; second, compliance and policy pathways, KYC/AML, cross-border data segmentation, auditable flows of funds and data, and tax and invoice closure; third, verifiable business loops, real payments, positive unit economics, and stable cash flow rhythms. In publicly available narratives, talk less about “coins” and focus more on supply-side infrastructure: for example, using DePIN to standardize computing power/bandwidth/sensor data into billable APIs, or using RWA to digitize existing assets and embed them into compliant issuance and settlement processes. Once these three matters have evidence chains, then use milestones to segment capital injections, rather than letting financing drive the business.

Governance must also return to common sense. A 50-50 split is not fair; it is inaction. Equity, board composition, reserved matters, vesting periods, cliff periods, founder departure clauses, and intellectual property ownership may not be sexy, but each one determines whether you can weather the first major storm. Arianna does not shy away from the merits of “single founders”—at least they won’t fall out with themselves. Portal Labs suggests that rather than getting tangled in “the number of partners,” it is better to clearly outline the “list of rights and responsibilities” and “conflict resolution mechanisms”; clearly envisioning the worst-case scenarios allows you to run faster when the best times come.

Competition and Expansion

Being copied is not news; being obsessed with the competition is. Arianna’s approach is to reclaim the narrative: define topics through product rhythm, key metrics, and customer stories, rather than directing traffic to competitors. For Chinese Web3 teams, it is especially important to fill in the “infrastructure” of PR and communication: professional branding teams, media whitelists, KOL advocates, user community product education, and transparency of technical documentation. Narrative is not PR jargon; it is the evidence of your continuous delivery.

At the same time, uncontrolled growth is both a good thing and a crisis. When service levels are breached, handle it in a tiered manner like firefighting: first protect the safety of funds and user assets, then ensure availability, and finally optimize the experience. Limiting flow, opening temporary whitelists, outsourcing customer service and risk control, and even quickly bridging to supplement computing power are all acceptable trade-offs. Write down the “disaster recovery plan” during calm times, rather than learning it on trending topics.

Mergers and acquisitions are another signal. Traditional giants are starting to become buyers in crypto, and “puzzle-style mergers” within the industry are also emerging. Ideally, you would be the acquirer, but excellent targets for acquisition may also be the best solution for the team, users, and early shareholders. The evaluation criteria are simple: strategic fit, user value, team continuity, and respect for the technology roadmap. Leave emotions for your social circle and leave the terms to the lawyers.

Do the Difficult Yet Correct Things for a Longer Time

The market will not provide founders with standard answers, and cycles certainly will not. Therefore, do not rush to predict the next wave; focus on those who can still push the system forward against the wind, and allocate time and resources to them. In the context of China, the answers are simpler yet more challenging: slogans should not just be shouted; the accounts, systems, and compliance documents must be made concrete; growth is not trending topics, but stable and reusable supply and cash flow; competition is not about direct confrontation, but about holding the narrative power and reclaiming topics through continuous delivery.

If there is one sentence to leave for Chinese Web3, Portal Labs believes it should be: first, do the difficult yet correct things for a longer time, chase fewer trends, and look at who is still around in ten years and whose systems are still running. Cycles will continue to rise and fall, but what truly determines victory or defeat is never the weather, but the foundation on which you build your house.

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