As Trump tanks Bitcoin, PMI offers a roadmap of what comes next

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The first six weeks of the second administration of US President Donald Trump were a crashing ball for encrypted currency markets.

Since its peak above 109,000 dollars on the opening day, Bitcoin (BTCIt was shattered to the lowest level of about 78,000 dollars in late February before a rapid recovery to 96,000 dollars after a few days Trump backup plans for encryption. However, after 24 hours, these gains were completely reflected in a move that attributed some to the explicit manipulation of the market.

Despite the short -term volatility, the Bitcoin path can be better understood with the lens of the work cycle and global liquidity. Both variables head up as of February.

source: Peter Chef

What the Procurement Manager Index on Bitcoin says

Over the past seven decades, the Procurement Manager Index at the Institute’s Management Institute (ISM) has been a valuable supplier to understand the health of the American economy. Each month, ISM issues the indicator of the and non -manufactured purchasing managers index to measure the health of the economies of services and services production.

Economists focus on further focus on the index of participation in manufacturing because it is seen as a pioneering indication of the broader economy and more sensitive to the changes in demand.

PMI data depends on quantitative and qualitative assessments of the economy through the “purchasing managers” lens, or executives in each industry.

The survey assesses their perceptions of the total working conditions, new orders, demand for export, stocks, work accumulation and employment trends, which are scheduled in one indicator range from 0 to 100, with 50 cut points between expansion and contraction.

After 26 months in consecutive shrinkage, the ISM participating directors index jumped from 50 in January. Sound higher than this critical level for the second consecutive month in February.

Although the demand is still relatively weak in general, with many members of the committee an experience “The first operational shock to the new tariff policy for the new administration,” is the direction change in the Procurement Manager Index in the context of the work cycle.

Bitcoin price, economy, Donald Trump, data analysis — *The Manager of Manufacturing Manager has been more than 50 years for two months in a row. source:* *Trading economics*

“ISM leads the economy about a month,” According to For the founding of the real vision, Raul Pal. “But this is not only the economy – it’s all the assets.”

Pal comments have been supported research By S & P Global Market Intelligence, who said that the data of the purchasing managers had expected “every turning point in profits over the past 14 years.”

The S& P Global has set 74 % connected between the profit based index based on the Purchase Manager and US companies’ profits.

Not only the arrows associated with the purchasing managers index – they are actually all the origins of risk, including bitcoin.

“This is because strong economic growth, strong companies’ profits and low possibility of stagnation allow investors” to go along the risk curve, ” He said The total analyst Thomason Market.

Watching Bitcoin in the PMI context removes a lot of confusion surrounding the BTC course in 2021, which lacked the top of the summit that many veterans of industry expected. In 2021, the price of bitcoin reached its peak mainly with the work cycle.

With the appearance of the work cycle now, you expect Pal to top Bitcoin in late 2025 or even early 2026. This peak should coincide with the upper part of the ISM business cycle, which was historically in the high fifties and low sixties.

M2 Global: The other bitcoin catalyst

The turning point in the work cycle is also affected by the high M2 money width, which indicates a wide measure of the amount of money that is traded through the economy. As Real Vision research has also shown, the Bitcoin price requires about 10 weeks to reflect changes in M2 Global.

Talks Crypto analysts drew 46 days and 72 days at M2 Global, which affects the price of Bitcoin. Based on its latest review, it gives more credibility to the last schedule.

Analyst Lynnin also drew attention to the predictive power of Global M2 on Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83 % of time in any period of 12 months, which is higher than any other major assets category, which makes it a strong measure of liquidity conditions,” books In September.