Bitcoin (BitcoinRecent price weakness has revived investor fears of a deeper decline, but many market analysts claim that an extended correction could be more positive in the long term.
Main takeaways:
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Analysts say downside risks for Bitcoin center around $65,000 to $75,000.
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A potential three-day bullish divergence is forming, a setup that could go in line with a local bottom once momentum stabilizes.
Supply rotation and oversold conditions determine BTC’s current price movement
Cryptocurrency trader jakes He said The current move is the macroeconomic range for 2025, noting that even a drop to $70,000 will not resemble previous bear markets. In contrast to 2022 or early 2024, the current drawdown lacks systemic macroeconomic-driven risk aversion pressures, reflecting instead a rotation of supply from early holders to institutional participants.
Meanwhile, market analyst Geely Highlight A potential bullish divergence is forming on the three-day chart for Bitcoin. Previous three-day divergences in this cycle coincided with local lows, although the trader said confirmation would require additional time and consolidation.
Julian Bittle, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, Reinforced This view is made by referring to Bitcoin’s historical behavior following RSI readings in the oversold zone below 30.
According to the data, Bitcoin tends to follow a well-defined recovery path after such conditions arise. While short-term volatility is still possible, Bittel said rules often take time to form and are usually accompanied by choppy price action before a sustained uptrend resumes.
Bittel asserts that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant driver of Bitcoin price behavior. Instead, extended debt refinancing cycles and evolving liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure could persist into 2026.
Related: Bitcoin price at ‘critical’ point as whale moves $348 million worth of bitcoin to exchanges
Longer Bitcoin cycles favor more stable but higher returns
Joren Timmer, Global Macro Manager at Fidelity placed The current phase is within a broader wave structure that runs from 2022 to 2025. That period has already achieved a CAGR of 105% over 145 weeks, which closely tracks long-term regression models.
While Timmer acknowledged that Bitcoin may still face a deeper correction in the $65,000 to $75,000 range in 2026, he stressed that these areas were strong buy zones.
Looking ahead, Timmer expects future cycles to develop with flatter slopes as adoption matures. However, price models indicate a possible path towards $300,000 by 2029 if a new expansion phase emerges.
In this context, corrective phases may serve as the basis for Bitcoin’s next structural advance.
Related: Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Broken, and Is the Bull Market Really Over?
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information contained in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
