At 08:30 East time today, the Economic Analysis Office is scheduled to make its pre -appreciation of the Q1 GDP, with consensus expectations at the annual average rate of 0.3 %.
If this is confirmed, then this would represent the weakest quarterly printing since early 2022 and the contrast is starkly with a more flow 3 billion dollars inside Bitcoin spot ETFS last week, reflecting what some market participants explain as a focus of capital preference towards digital assets amid total economic stagnation.
[Editor’s Note: Q1 GDP will not include tariff impact as the cut-off date came before ‘Liberation Day.’]
GDP predictions show a blatant gap. NOWCAST in Atlanta was called in the Federal Reserve A. Reducing 2.7 %While the Federal Reserve Bank model Project growth From 2.5 %, the last update on February 14.
Regardless of the final number, withdrawing from the record of registered commodity trade is a common feature through estimates, as some models are attributed to 1.9 percentage points for negative contribution to it.
This commercial deficiency appears to be the result of a delay in the front loading of the tariff, which raises preventive imports during the previous quarter. Inventory is expected to be flat, while consumer feelings continue to deteriorate, which reaches its lowest level for five years. Commercial capitalist spending has also been reduced.
Embolic stability holds the image. March The consumer price index increased 2.4 % 2.8 % in February, and the basic PCE index, the preferred inflation scale in the Federal Reserve, by 2.8 % in February.
Futures interest rates are now in more than 90 % probability of reducing average by December. At the same time, the cabinet revenues and the weakness of the dollar have decreased, which enhances the recession comparisons with the 1970s with economic kiosks and inflation remained higher than the target.
Bitcoin Macro Hedge for 2025?
Bitcoin The market preparation is especially different from the traditional total image. The realized capital continues for the best digital assets Make new levels at allCurrently at $ 883 billion and continuous flows despite the withdrawal from the peak of the January price.
The data indicates that approximately 20,000 BTC came out of the exchanges last week, which is the highest weekly weekly flow in two years, driven primarily with the accumulation of the whale of 19,255 BTC. Meanwhile, Spot Bitcoin ETFS acquired $ 3.4 billion in flows, the third largest weekly amount so far.
IBIT from Blackrock alone $ 643 million on April 23, to her The second is the second One day flow.
The scales of fluctuations suggest a wider development in the market structure. The achieved fluctuations have pressed approximately 50 % of its peak 2022, and the volatility between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is now near the lowest levels of the cycle.
This pressure led to the credibility of Bitcoin’s descriptions as a mature assets category, which is an enhanced viewpoint Note, you are Its fluctuation and shared appearance are increasingly similar to the image of gold instead of stocks.
The overlapping between the near American economy and the high invested cost in Bitcoin reflects the different accounts of capital.
The process of withdrawing in the commercial deficit highlights the restrictions of the tariff cargo economy, while the Bitcoin Without Borders provides a contradictory means of global allocation.
The lukewarm and high inflation background has reopened the discourse on digital assets as hedges in potential stagnation, especially with the continued demand for ETF despite the recession signals.
As the main funds of Blackrock and FIDELITY continue to absorb supply, flows to digital assets are flexible flexibility from traditional macro indicators.
Market participants are now looking to the main PCE update on May 1 and FOMC Resolution next week for more clarity on the price path and inflation conditions.
