The total circulating supply of Bitcoin has just surpassed 95% of the maximum hard supply of 21 million — a massive feat achieved nearly 17 years ago when creator Satoshi Nakamoto Extract the configuration block It is January 3, 2009.
With 19.95 million Bitcoins now in circulation, this leaves only 2.05 million Bitcoins to be mined. The question is what does this mean for the future of Bitcoin and its price?
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Thomas Perfumo, global economist at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, said this represents an important milestone in the Bitcoin narrative, as the annual supply is currently inflating. around 0.8% annually, and hard money “requires a credible narrative for people to confidently embrace currency as a store of value.”
“Bitcoin uniquely combines its functionality as a real-time, permissionless, global settlement protocol with the certainty of authenticity and rarity you would expect from a masterpiece like the Mona Lisa.”
“This milestone is a reminder that Bitcoin is resistant to degradation and interference, and is operating as designed after nearly 17 years,” Perfumo added.
Issuing 95% of Bitcoin supply alone will not raise prices
It has been speculated that by limiting the entry of new supply, each currency… The value should increase As demand increases while supply chokes.
However, Jake Kenes, senior research analyst at onchain analytics platform Nansen, said the milestone is unlikely to move the market immediately. However, it is true Bitcoin’s digital gold novel It highlights how primary holders and institutional players are booking limited supply to hold for the long term.
“It underscores Bitcoin’s scarcity, but the remaining 5% will take more than 100 years to reach 100% trading due to halving events. While increasing scarcity can support prices psychologically, this particular milestone is more of a narrative event than a direct price catalyst,” Kenes said.
He added: “The real story is not the 95% number per se, but that Bitcoin’s supply schedule works exactly as designed, is predictable and is rare in the age of unlimited fiat money printing.”
Based on the cluster detection rate and Half processwhich occurs roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks of transactions, the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140.
The supply milestone is a sign of Bitcoin maturity
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of blockchain oracle company Redstone, also believes that achieving 95% is unlikely to be an immediate price catalyst, as Bitcoin supply dynamics are already known, tokens have been issued over the past decade, and have been gradually absorbed by the markets.
However, he said the milestone highlights why scarcity is so important to Bitcoin’s long-term value, and traders should focus more on whether the infrastructure supporting it can scale to support the next phase of institutional integration.
Related to: Bitwise CEO Says 2026 Will Be a Real Bull Year for Cryptocurrencies, and Here’s Why
“What matters more is the macroeconomic context, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity rather than reaching an arbitrary percentage threshold,” Kazmierczak said.
“The real inflection points were early in the supply curve. What this represents is the maturity of Bitcoin – we are moving from a growth-stage asset to an asset with consistent, predictable scarcity over the long term. This is good for institutional adoption, but it is not a market-moving event in and of itself.”
Miners may have to change soon
Higher prices may be out of the question, but Kenes said dwindling supply is likely to increase pressure on miners who… You already feel the pain From the halving in April 2024, reducing the reward per block to 3,125 BTC.
“Miners are already feeling the impact of block rewards being halved, most recently in 2024, forcing them to increasingly rely on transaction fees for profitability,” he said.
“The 95% completion underscores this long-term shift, which could drive out less efficient miners while the network hash rate typically recovers quickly.”
A similar view is shared by Kazmierczak, who stated that as supply growth slows significantly, the economics of mining will undergo a fundamental transformation.
“We are moving from reward-based miners to transaction fee-based miners. This creates pressure on miners to consolidate or seek efficiency gains,” he said.
magazine: Big Questions: Did time-traveling AI invent Bitcoin?
