Julian Bittle, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), has published a roadmap for Bitcoin’s RSI on
“A lot of people have asked for an update on this chart, so I’ll leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittle wrote, sharing a chart of Bitcoin’s average price path after the RSI fell below 30, marking the RSI breakout as t=0. “This shows Bitcoin’s average path after an RSI reading in the oversold territory, with the RSI falling below 30 at t=0.”
Can Bitcoin rise to $180,000 in just 90 days?
Beetle He said The overlay has matched the existing bar. “So far, it has been very successful,” he wrote. The “Average Market Path” line rises sharply over the following weeks. The chart shows a sharp 90-day rise after t=0, with BTC price potentially rising near the $180,000 area.
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However, Bittle emphasized that the chart is not intended to be an accurate forecast. “No, it wouldn’t be perfect,” he wrote, adding that “assuming the bull market isn’t over already, it’s worth keeping this chart in mind.” He also warned that the rebound process could be mixed: “The bases can take a long time to form and usually come with a lot of chops before the larger upward move begins.”
He reiterated the conditional nature of the framework in explicit terms. “If you think the bull market is over and we’re now facing twelve months of pain, this chart isn’t for you. Move on…”
The larger point, Bittle said, is that the familiar cycle narrative should not be taken for granted. “Unless you believe the four-year cycle holds, which we don’t, this chart should hold up over time,” he wrote. “As we have made clear many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current trajectory of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this The cycle extends to 2026In this scenario, he added: “ 4-year course He died.”
Bittle also challenged the common assumption that Bitcoin’s cadence is primarily about “halving.” “Remember, the four-year cycle was never about halving, despite popular belief that it was, but was instead always driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,” he wrote, adding that this post-Covid dynamic “has been postponed by one year.” He now argues that the cycle has “officially broken” because “the weighted average maturity of the debt duration structure has increased.”
He modeled the overall backdrop in terms of debt servicing pressures and liquidity response. “The bigger picture is that there is still a significant amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far outpaced GDP growth,” Bittle wrote.
Reactions across Cryptocurrency X ranged from enthusiasts to skeptics. The ₿itcoin wizard replied: “$180,000 in 90 days.”
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LondonCryptoClub (LDNCryptoClub) said the chart was “in line with our thinking,” linking the narrative to what he called the “Fed.”Not quantitative easing“The dynamics and ‘liquidity games’ between the Treasury and the central bank. The account still expects end-of-year disruption – ‘noise and choppiness at the end of the year (which is negative liquidity)’ – before ‘these fundamental drivers start to see BTC dialing back to the upside,'” he said, adding that “Feelings seem bad enough BTC moving higher is the most hated trade to start 2026!
Others spoke in a more sarcastic tone. “Here’s HD hopium,” wrote Doug Vanney (@cryptoklotz), while still drawing a conditional path forward: I still believe that as long as BTC is alive (ie, doesn’t close at $70k and start falling or accepting there), there is a reasonable path to new highs on the ex side in 2026. It just needs to survive the “transition zone” of the inevitable 4-year exhaustive sell-off, and then it’s over In a critical situation. Spot while the music continues to play.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, was more critical of the statistical underpinnings, urging a wider test set: “Now rerun this with 100 events, not just 5 times.”
For traders, Bittle’s post effectively combines a tactical signal with a system call: An RSI pattern below 30 might chart a bounce path, but only “assuming the bull market isn’t actually over,” and only in a world where, as he puts it, “the balance of probabilities” favors a cycle that “extends into 2026.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $87,330.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
