The temporary Senate-backed hiatus to reopen the US government puts inflation data and Treasury bond issuances in perspective again Bitcoin.
The chamber has advanced a continuing resolution that would fund the agencies through January 30, 2026, with the bill returning to the House for approval, which would restart defunct statistical agencies and normalize auction operations.
according to timeThe agreement comes after a 41-day closure and will restore the flow of official data supporting price expectations and the value of the dollar.
The living vehicle is Human Resources 5371Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026, at congress.gov. The text specifies coverage and model mechanisms for short-term extensions that maintain prior year funding levels while Congress works on full-year appropriations.
Why data replay is important for Bitcoin liquidity
For cryptocurrencies, the reopening is important because it flips the macro data pipeline again, returns treasury supply to a predictable rhythm, and clarifies the near-term path of real rates influencing Bitcoin risk appetite and spot ETF flows.
During the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis temporarily suspended some releases. The Ministry of Labor had prepared to suspend major publications if the closure continued.
The short-term calendar now includes the release of the October CPI on Thursday, November 13 at 08:30 ET, along with the release of real earnings at the same time. The producer price index is scheduled for release on November 14, and the import and export price indexes are scheduled for release on November 18.
These releases reset the market’s reliance on data, moving interest rate and dollar bets back toward inflation and labor inputs rather than financial headlines. For Bitcoin, the hinge remains the true 10-year return.
Absorbing the overall noise as the price of Bitcoin now relies on old plumbing
the 10-year implied real return It stands at 1.83%, which is higher than the mid-year level. A benign CPI print tends to dampen real yields and financial conditions, a backdrop that has supported risk assets and coincided with tighter ETF spreads and improved secondary market depth for cryptocurrencies.
Treasury supplies entered the week with firm resolve. Quarterly redemptions amount to $125 billion across 3-, 10- and 30-year notes and bonds, with approximately $26.8 billion of new cash raised. Auction dates are Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.
According to the Treasury Department Recovery statementOfficials plan to keep coupon rates constant for several quarters, use invoices and cash management invoices for flexibility, and continue buybacks to support market performance.
This path limits the chance of a near-term premium shock as operations resume, keeping CPI the dominant driver for duration.
The 10-year nominal yield was trading near 4.1% in early November, and with the CPI back on time, the interplay between the release and data will likely set the tone for interest rates through the end of the week.
To put the plumbing in perspective, the Treasury’s general account closed at about $943 billion November 7, according to YChartswhich is high for 2024 and provides Cushion with normalized auctions. A higher, rising TGA represents a headwind for bank reserves, while a weaker drawdown or rebuild could act as a calm tailwind to risk.
With coupons constant, bills remain the lever for cash management. If the reopening creates room for a slow drawdown of the TGA until the end of the month, it would be positive for liquidity on the margin, especially if it coincides with an easing in real yields following the CPI release.
Spot inflows of Bitcoin ETFs remain the other swing factor. Cryptocurrency ETFs brought global Standard quantities At the beginning of October, Bitcoin soared to new highs, before activity waned and US funds saw… Net outflows To early November.
According to Kaiko data, order book depth has improved significantly compared to 2022-2023, with slippage reduced for larger ticket sizes.
Deeper records amplify macro-led moves because additional flows travel more cleanly, particularly when ETF creations or redemptions align with cross-asset shifts in interest rates and the dollar.
Three Macro Paths for Bitcoin Liquidity as CPI Returns
As the CR opens the calendar, the next 1-2 weeks narrow down to three tracks. If the CPI falls at or below the consensus level and a frictionless redemption ends, 10-year real yields could drift towards the 1.6-1.7% region, the dollar could decline, and US-traded Bitcoin ETFs could focus on modest net inflows.
High-frequency allocators tend to re-engage when the data trail is visible, and a slower TGA rebuild would support net liquidity. If the CPI rises and the Treasury relies on Treasuries to rebuild cash, real yields could rise above 1.9%, ETF outflows could resume, and cryptocurrencies would trade defensively with a stronger beta for real yields.
It is also possible to occur as a result of process noise if House passage fluctuates or if the CPI arrives with quirks associated with the publication backlog, in which case flows may decline. Meanwhile, desks monitor release calendars and buyback schedules for reference.
For readers tracking the mechanics, the following release details are available for this week’s refund and serve as a clean reference to view against the CPI:
| protection | measuring | New cash collected |
|---|---|---|
| 3 year note | 58 billion dollars | Total $26.8 billion |
| 10 year note | 42 billion dollars | |
| 30 year bonds | $25B |
According to the Treasury Department, the flat position for several quarters covers these volumes, with the caveat that officials are evaluating future increases as needed. This message reduces near-term uncertainty about the duration of the coupon, putting the CPI at the heart of the drive for interest rates this week.
As real yields continue to rise, the cryptocurrency ticker is poised for a bilateral response driven by the inflation surprise and dollar trend.
