Ethereum [ETH] The index was down less than 1% on the day, at press time, after strong gains of 10% over the past week.
Despite this recent rally, the broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with total capital hovering just above $3 trillion.
Ethereum The price performance reflects the capital outflow we have seen since the beginning of the fourth quarter. This has been a historically bullish quarter for cryptocurrencies since 2020, with the exception of 2022 and 2025, where per Queen Glass.
Ethereum ETFs and whale activity contributed to this price decline. However, the market showed a slight recovery in the last week of November. Will capital outflows lead to further declines, and by how much?
Monthly outflows for Ethereum ETFs rise
the Data SosoValue showed that the past five days in a row have seen positive flows of more than $368 million. This was a reflection of the influx of capital at a time when the entire market was finding its ground.
Looking at the broader picture, November recorded significant outflows. Nearly $1.42 billion was withdrawn from Ethereum ETFs, three times the $403 million recorded in March.
Source: Soso Value
The last quarter of the year was bearish, but November in ETH was the worst. Massive inflows in July and August sent the price of ETH soaring, while a subsequent decline in this activity led to a decline.
More capital inflow from OG whales
The capital outflow did not end with the ETF activity, but rather extended to the OG whales.
An early adopter of ETH was cashing out the asset after about eight years of holding it, buying at $517. per Battelle encryption on X.
The whale gradually unloaded its spot position, most recently 18,000 Ethereum worth $54.78 million. The deposit on Bitstamp was a hint of selling, confirming further capital outflow from the Ethereum ecosystem.
Source: CryptoBattle/X
In total, the whale sold 87,824 Ethereum worth $270 million, but still holds more than $200 million in Ethereum.
These remaining holdings reflect confidence in the potential recovery of the assets, especially with the long-term outlook.
Is the price of Ethereum at risk of falling?
On the hourly chart, Ethereum has been holding above trendline support for several days. This bullish setup is in line with a 10% weekly gain, which has taken the price from the $2,600 area to $3,040 at the time of writing.
Capital outflow is at risk of breaking below the uptrend line. If this is achieved, the ETH price could correct between 5% and 6% from the current price.
This way, the price could go back below $3,000 again.
Source: Trading View
Alternatively, if ETH defends this support level, the current recovery could continue to push the price higher.
Final thoughts
- The last week of November saw huge inflows from the ETH ETF, but the monthly total fell to $1.42 billion.
- The selling of spot holdings by whales could cause prices to collapse by 5% or more.
