Key takeaways
What’s Driving the Recent Cryptocurrency Rally?
$440 billion stimulus, federal interest rate cuts, and controlled inflation have fueled bullish positions in the short term, increasing the market cap of cryptocurrencies.
Are there risks awaiting investors?
Rising inflation, mounting US debt, and insufficient tariff revenues could lead to a 2022-2026-style withdrawal.
It appears that the US economy is starting to get back on its feet.
Nearly 40 days later Government shutdown It is finally uploaded. In fact, this came shortly after President Trump to publish About $2,000 in “tariff dividends” for Americans, excluding high-income groups.
From there, the cryptocurrency market did not wait.
It exploded almost 40% and paid Total market value To about $3.57 trillion. But the bigger question is what this means moving forward. Is stimulus the primary driver pushing crypto momentum into late 2025 and 2026?
Capital flows rise as stimulus boosts risky assets
The short-term outlook for cryptocurrency investors has turned strongly bullish.
From a macro perspective, this move is not random. The stimulus test is in a relatively stable place, supported by “weaker than expected” data, e.g Economic inflation Staying under control despite constant tariffs.
Add to the Fed Dilution cycleWith interest rates having been cut twice already, the liquidity backdrop has become more supportive of risky assets. forBottom line, cryptocurrency investors believe the stimulus will fuel capital inflows.
Source: X (Qubeisi’s message)
Technically, Analysts We see a $440 billion stimulus on the horizon.
Based on the chart above, there are approximately 220 million American adults who meet the income criteria, excluding the top 15% of “high income.” That means roughly $220 million x $2,000, or $440 billion in payments.
Against this background, cryptocurrency enthusiasts were quick to do so Drawing parallels With the 2020 Covid stimulus cycle and the 2021 bull market. However, analysts still advise caution. So, is the long-term status of cryptocurrencies still in limbo?
Crypto bulls face headwinds from stimulus and debt
The 2020 stimulus cycle later played out during the 2022 bear market.
For context, in 2020, the U.S. government Three rounds rolled of stimulus checks to boost liquidity, totaling more than $814 billion.
The result? These payments fueled a bullish rally, sending the cryptocurrency market up 180%+.
However, as Al Qubaisi’s letter noted, the influx of liquidity has also sparked a massive inflation cycle, pushing the US inflation index to 9% by June 2022, which in turn has driven inflation higher. antiquities Annual decline in the cryptocurrency market by 70%.
Source: X (Qubeisi’s message)
In short, the long-term impact of the stimulus could be bearish for cryptocurrencies.
However, the question is: Will tariffs offset some of these pressures?
In August 2025, the United States collected $30 billion in customs duty revenues. However, the deficit that month was $345 billion, so the tariffs only covered 10% of the deficit.
Add $37 trillion US debtAn incentive of this magnitude can add even more pressure. Thus, short-term positions look bullish, but higher inflation and rising debt could lead to a 2022-style crypto decline before 2026.
