Despite all the talk about this course being somewhat “different”, so is its structure Bitcoin The market still seems unambiguously cyclical to me.
Every summit brings the same chorus that claims The cycle model is deadAnd every cooling stage renews the idea of this Liquidity alone Now defines the path. But the evidence continues to point in the other direction.
The bears may be shorter, the rhythm may be compressed, and all-time highs may continue to creep in early in each epoch, yet the underlying rhythm has not disappeared.
My basic thesis about a bear market
My practical view is simple: the next true bottom of a bear market will still be the lowest reading of the cycle, and that reading has probably not been reached yet.
Since the last cycle bottomed in 2023 and the halving reached an all-time high ahead of schedule, a compressed contraction through 2026 fits both historical patterns and current dynamics.
In fact, the current extension could easily develop into a rapid and sharp decline that briefly exceeds the downside, exhausts sellers, and sets the stage for another rally towards a new high before the next halving.
In this scenario, a panic-driven slide towards… High – $40,000 It becomes the point where the bar finally breaks, and where the buyer base changes.
Below $50K is where balance sheets, institutions and ultra-high net worth allocators who “missed” the recent move to YOLO in terms of volume are likely to head.
This demand is structural. It is this group of actors who now view Bitcoin not as a trade, but as a strategic stock.
The real fragility lies elsewhere: in the security budget.
With the inscriptions fade and Collapse of fee revenues Returning to pre-hype levels, miners had to shift to AI and HPC hosting just to maintain cash flow.
This stabilizes their business but creates new flexibility in hash rate, especially at the lowest price levels, and leaves the network more dependent on issuance at the precise moment that issuance steps down.
The short-term result is that the market is more sensitive to the behavior of miners, more vulnerable to declines in the fee share, and more vulnerable to sharp mechanical sell-offs when the retail price falls.
All of this keeps the cyclical lens intact: shorter dips, clearer floors, and a path where the next true bottom, whether in early 2026 or just before the 2027 window, is determined by mining economics, fee trends, and the point at which wealthy buyers rush in to secure supply.
BTC Bear Market Scenarios (Basic/Soft Bearish/Deep Cut)
So, no matter what the influencers feeding on Copium say, Bitcoin still trades in cycles, and the next down cycle will likely hinge on security budget calculations, miner behavior, and institutional flow resilience.
Let’s dig deeper into the data.
If the fees do not rebuild a solid ground with a rollback of the issue, and if Miners rely on artificial intelligence And HPC hosting to stabilize cash flow, the hash rate becomes more sensitive to the price at its lows.
This combination could pressure the retail price, squeeze marginal operators, and produce mechanically driven legs that print a floor near $49,000 in early 2026, then move into a slower recovery in 2027 and 2028.
Structural supply is real, but it can darken when volatility rises and the macro economy tightens at the margin.
| scenario | Bottom price (USD) | Timing window | Path shape | Key triggers to a low level | What turns recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a base | 49000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2-3 sharp lower legs, supported | Forward retail price is less than $40 per hour/second/day for weeks; Fees % of mining revenue <10%; 20D ETF flows are negative | Miner surrender wipes. ETF inflows turn out to be less than $50k |
| Soft landing | 56,000-60,000 | Second half 2025 | Single flow, group | Fee% > 15% is sustainable; Stable hash rate; Mixed to positive ETF flows on down days | High L2 settlement fees; return activity patterns; Net fixed ETF purchases |
| Deep cut | 36,000-42,000 | Late 2026 – first quarter 2027 | Waterfall, fast | Total risk avoidance; drought charges miners’ plight; Continuous outflows of ETFs | Policy/liquidity axis; Sovereign large print or ETF |
The deep cut bottoms at one of the strongest price points and liquidity levels at $36,700, which is indicated by the solid green line on the chart below.
So, although I believe in the Bitcoin cycle, ETF inflows and miner revenues will determine how low we go.
The largest bitcoin ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT, recorded a record single-day outflow of about $523 million on November 19, 2025, as the spot price retreated. This is a clear example of the flexibility of flow in the new system.
Amounts traded across the US ETF pool account for… Same behavior in totalwith windows of net outflows building as prices fall.
As for miners’ revenues, the minimum fees that appeared during the filings have now faded.
Arrangement activity last year pushed fee revenues into periods where they rivaled, and sometimes exceeded, block subsidies, but transaction demand slowed, and the share of fees declined.
According to Bitcoin Magazine Fees versus rewards series and Miner revenue chartsfee contributions were materially lower than the 2024 highs.
Memball The fee rate percentages also show that average fee rates are well below last year’s peaks.
A weak fee share makes the security budget dependent on issuance, which declines predictably, so the burden shifts to the price and hashrate to keep the mining economics intact.
Miner behavior is also changing as public operators expand into hosting AI and high-performance computing.
This offers dual revenue streams that stabilize business models, yet can make the hash rate more resilient when prices fall.
If hosting cash flow covers fixed costs, miners can reduce hash value when Bitcoin margins compress without immediate distress, which tightens network security on margin during dips and can deepen price sensitivity.
TeraWulf signs two 10-year AI hosting deals backed by Google with potential to generate billions of dollars in revenue, and other miners are taking action Similar axes.
The timeline for these contracts is useful context for the retail supply elasticity argument.
Hashprice remains the simple lens for mining margins.
Luxor Hashrate Index It shows an immediate and forward series hovering near the lower range until late 2025, consistent with tighter conditions.
If the forward retail price remains at low levels while the fee share remains low, the potential for miners’ balance sheet stress rises, and a capitulation-style supply could emerge in concentrated windows.
The path from there tends to involve two or three quick legs down, a base, and then an accumulation phase that absorbs the supply of the metal and the leverage as permanent funding and resets the basis.
The $49,000 base case is a periodic call, not a total forecast.
The timing matches my position in the cycle and my observation that the bears are getting shorter.
The all-time high before the halving in 2024 compressed the tempo against the 2020-2021 period, but did not end the cycles.
The line to watch is the meeting of three chains
- Fee share of miner revenue on a 7 day basis which fails to sustain above 10-15% for weeks.
- Retail prices print new cycle lows and hold them long enough to pressure weaker operators.
- Cumulative 20-day ETF flows turn negative as prices decline, indicating a collapse of flow elasticity at the margin.
When these are aligned, the probability of a sharp print increases.
The recovery side of the call depends on the plumbing and inventory.
ETFs, custody, and OTC bars are now moving in real volume with less friction than in previous cycles, and this helps convert main dip demand into outlet flow.
The $49,000 list of buyers includes rebalancing ETFs toward target weights, UHNW mandates to add core exposure, and sovereign or sovereign-adjacent balance sheets that treat less than $50,000 as strategic.
The price elastic response from these channels is the practical difference between prolonged malaise and a quicker return to maximum and healthy expansion.
Counterpoints are worth the space.
Layer 2 settlement could build a permanent minimum fee into this era, which would raise the security budget and relieve retail price pressure.
If the share of fees rises and stabilizes above the averages while ETF flows turn positive on down days, the downtrend may stabilize earlier and less deeply than the base case.
The AI and HPC pivot can also be framed as supportive of network security in the medium term, as it maintains miners’ solvency and ability to invest in capacity and energy contracts.
This situation must be weighed against the near-term impact of a resilient hash rate at lows, which is where sharp prints typically occur.
the Power law framing It also gives the cycle lens a foundation without over-priming.
On a logarithmic scale, Bitcoin’s long-term path behaves like an organic system with resource constraints, where energy, hash rate, issuance, and market fees determine the friction around the trend.
Deviations above and below this range occur when the security budget variables and flow variables move in the same direction.
The current setup looks like a classic trip risk below the range if fees remain weak and flow resilience is poor.
Face levels for viewing
| index | Dangers of Bear Print ↑ | Recovery bias ↑ | Primary source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot ETF flows (20-day cumulative) | <0 while the price goes down | > 0 on down days (buy on dip) | Persian investors |
| Fees % of mining revenue (7D) | <10% for several weeks | > 15% sustainable | Bitcoin Pro Magazine |
| Retail price (USD/TH/day; spot/forward rate) | Continuation of new cycle lows | Stability then reaches its highest levels | Hashrate indicator |
| Feerates (average sat/vB) | Flat/low during fluctuations | High though side price | mempool. space |
| Network hashrate/difficulty | Retail falls into weakness | Stable hash rate through withdrawal | Blockchain.com |
If these conditions persist, printing $49K in early 2026 fits the cycle, the economics of mining, and the way pipes are now absorbing dips.
If charges are rebuilt and flows stabilize sooner, the low could rise.
The trade monitors the fee share, tick price and ETF flows at the same time, then lets the tape choose the path.
