After two years of waiting for an “altcoin season” that never came, retail cryptocurrency traders have missed out on nearly $800 billion in potential gains by betting on altcoins. Bitcoin dominance.
A new report from 10x Research shows that altcoins have lagged behind Bitcoin by this amount this cycle, marking one of the largest relative underperformances since 2017.
The data highlights a profound shift in market structure, which is now increasingly defined by institutional flows, Bitcoin ETFsand risk aversion rather than the speculative rotational patterns that fueled the previous uptrend.
Retail awaits “ghost season”
Traditionally, altcoin season describes the period when smaller cryptocurrencies significantly outperform Bitcoin, absorbing capital from benchmark assets and delivering outsized returns in the short term.
In past cycles, most notably 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin profits flowed into Ethereum, and then into mid-cap coins and tokens.
However, 10x Research notes that this cycle has reversed this pattern. Instead of rotating, liquidity has been consolidated around Bitcoin.
According to the company, data shows that investors have significantly reallocated their funds to Bitcoin-denominated products and away from high-risk tokens.
I noticed:
“Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting Bitcoin dominance bottoming out. This shift comes after a 75-day period in which the model favored altcoins, a phase that coincided with the Ethereum rally, but this trend has clearly ended.”
Furthermore, 10X Research reported that Korean retail traders, long considered the engine of altcoin speculation, have also abandoned the trade.
For context, Messari data shows that Upbit, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea, saw a notable decline in its trading volume this year as traders turned to US-listed cryptocurrency stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy.
10x Research says this migration has drained liquidity and conviction from the altcoin pool.
It is worth noting, Cryptocellite Previous reports support this assertion, explaining how Altcoins have stalled compared to Bitcoin.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed $2.3 trillion in early October, hitting a new all-time high of around $126,000. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) remains below its November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion.
By mid-October, TOTAL2ES had reached just $1.48 trillion, about $120 billion below its previous high, even as its Bitcoin outperformed by 84%. This gap is where 10x Research’s “$800 billion in lost gains” figure comes from.
10x research books:
“Liquidity, momentum and conviction have migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.”
Given this, it’s altcoin season for Coinperp indexwhich tracks how many top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period, was only able to peak above 70 in early September — below the 75 threshold that defines a true swing season, and has since fallen to 13 as of press time.
Altcoins are fading
According to Bitget CEO Gracie Chen, the problem goes deeper than temporary emotions.
she He pointed out Venture capital investment in early-stage Web3 projects has declined sharply, depriving the sector of new narratives and token launches.
In fact, Galaxy Search a report It revealed that cryptocurrency venture capital activity is significantly lower compared to previous bull markets. In fact, Q2 2025 was the second smallest quarter since Q4 2020 for investment in cryptocurrency and blockchain startups.
Chen added that the recent market shock on October 11, which wiped out about $20 billion from leveraged crypto position holders, “dealt a devastating blow to altcoins.”
She added:
“Retail investors who trade altcoins face a terrible risk-to-reward ratio.”
Given this, Bitget’s CEO said that a large-scale altcoin season “is not coming in 2025 or ’26.”
At the same time, she noted that there may be some potential exceptions for projects that issue associated infrastructure tokens Real assets (RWA), stablecoins, and payment protocols.
These “infrastructure plays,” while unlikely to issue volatile native tokens, could anchor the next growth phase, Chen argues. actually, ripple cross border bars, Circle’s USDC ecosystem and tokenized treasury platforms are already showing that traction is shifting from speculation to service.
However, retail curiosity remains. Google Trends data shows that Global interest in searching for “altcoin” It reached a five-year high last August, matching excitement levels last seen during Ethereum 2018 preliminary.
How organizations are rewriting the rules of the game
Unlike the retail-led mania of 2021, the current cycle has been shaped by institutional capital.
According to 10x research, Spot Bitcoin ETF Approvals, corporate treasury sharing, and yield-yielding stablecoins have redefined what can be considered “safe” exposure to cryptocurrencies.
Notably, spot cryptocurrency ETFs have attracted record inflows of over $40 billion in new capital this year, significantly outperforming other markets.
As a result, retail traders seeking quick returns on altcoins have found themselves marginalized. Therefore, even modest rises in assets e.g Solana Or the avalanche has faded quickly amid weak order books and limited fundamental catalysts.
