From net flows to corporate financing, the metrics that explain this bull cycle are better than “the number going up.” Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are now driven by off-chain flows and leverage, not just by classic on-chain signals.
Since January 2024, when Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the US, the variables explaining why Bitcoin is stolen or dumped have been quietly modified. Gauges on the chain now describe how tight the spring is, not whether someone is pressing the trigger.
The catalyst lies in ETF flows, perpetual swap funding, stablecoin liquidity, and macro shocks transmitted through institutional portfolios.
Here are the five signals that are actually moving BTC in the era of ETFs.
Net ETF inflows became the primary additional driver
Common market review before twin and Vitreous node published In February 2025 Spot ETFs are estimated to have amassed more than 515,000 Bitcoin, about 2.4 times the amount issued by miners during the same period.
Additionally, a study by Mishko Mazur and Efstathios Polizos found that capital flows into US spot ETFs are an optimal solution. The most important factor In prediction Bitcoin Evaluation is more interpretive than traditional coding variables.
The first quarter of 2024 saw approximately $12.1 billion in net inflows into new US spot ETFs, a period that coincided with Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high.
In November 2025, net redemptions totaled approximately $3.7 billion, the largest monthly outflows since launch, as Bitcoin fell from over $126,000 to a high of $80,000.
Glassnode’s November reports identify the softness of flow ETFs as The main reason behind the decline of BTC Below key cost basis ranges, spot order flow is “exceptionally sensitive” to relatively small incremental flows in a weak market.
A $500 million IBIT inflow day is now as meaningful as any on-chain whale movement.
Perp financing and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle
Derivatives data from key places e.g BitMEX, Binanceand Bybit It shows that funding is clustering around a neutral range this cycle, with far fewer extreme breakouts than in 2017 or 2021. However, increases are still in line with local peaks and liquidations.
The annual financing of 8% to 12% is now in balance. Large rallies above those precede local peaks, while deep negative funding signals cycle troughs and forced unwindings.
The 2025 SSRN study by Emre Inan found that perpetual funding of BTC on Binance and Bybit appears Predictability of financing rates Instead of price returns. However, it helps in predicting the next funding print, which adds data to verify the next BTC movement.
With ETF flows turning modestly negative in November, Glassnode noted lower open interest for futures, lower funding for the cycle, and sharp repricing of bearish options.
Price pulses now look like a joint product of ETF flows and derivatives placement. When ETF inflows rise but funding remains weak, that’s always demand.
When funding rises to more than 20% per year while ETF inflows stop, it means leverage is chasing momentum, and falling quickly.
Stablecoin liquidity remains the original path
The supply and exchange balances of stablecoins are still closely aligned with Bitcoin price movements.
Explosions in stablecoin supply growth and rising exchange balances have historically preceded or accompanied major BTC rallies, while flat or negative stablecoin growth has prior corrections.
CEX.IO January 2025 Review It shows that the supply of stablecoins has increased by approximately 59% in 2024 and reached approximately 1% of the US dollar money supply, with a transfer volume of $27.6 trillion in that year.
Periods of strong ETF inflows coupled with expanding stablecoin supply provide the strongest rallies. When both become negative, downward moves are faster and deeper.
ETF flows serve as the front door for institutions, while stablecoins limit the amount of marginal firepower native crypto traders can bring to the move.
Government systems have evolved and have not disappeared
Glassnode and Avenir’s June 2025 report notes that the share of BTC held by long-term holders reached historic highs in early 2025, leading to a tightening of the float, but a rise in the “hot capital share” of short-term, price-sensitive supply to nearly 38% made the market react sharply to new inflows.
Additionally, Glassnode’s November reports link recent price action to long-term LTH holder behavior: BTC’s slippage below key realized price bands coincided with LTH starting to decline. Distributed to demand on ETF and CEXweakening support.
21 shares He argues that before 2024, you can Tell the story of Bitcoin cycles with on-chain pool and cost basis metrics alone. After ETFs, you need to combine those funds with ETF flows, derivatives and aggregate units.
Monitoring where the supply is, LTH vs. STH, the profit ranges, and the price achieved, is a way to understand how resilient the bar is, and then pair that with ETF and derivatives data to explain why the same $BUY BTC is moving more or less than before.
Global liquidity and real returns are transmitted through ETFs
The era of ETFs has tightened Bitcoin’s correlation with… Total liquidity And real returns. Ainsley Wealth September 2025 analysis I find that BTC historically responds with a beta of 5x to 9x to changes in the Global Composite Liquidity Index, versus roughly 2x to 3x for gold and about 1x for stocks.
The 2025 Macro Finance Study concluded that Bitcoin showed increased sensitivity to interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, behaving like a high-beta macro asset.
Deutsche Bank Analysts believe that the current drawdown is Harder to recover This is because Bitcoin (BTC) is now an integral part of institutional portfolios via ETFs, and these portfolios are being de-risked amid macro headwinds and rising real returns.
21Shares links the fall sell-off to tightening liquidity and fading interest rate cut hopes, framing ETF flows as a transmission conduit between the macroeconomy and Bitcoin.
Prospects of interest rate cuts, dollar liquidity indicators, and US real yield movements now appear almost instantly in ETF flows, which then feed into spot and derivatives transactions.
The combined system determines the direction
The five signals are cogs in the same machine.
ETF flows determine the underlying institutional supply. Perp financing reveals whether this offer is being amplified or countered through leverage. Stablecoin liquidity determines whether local cryptocurrency traders can absorb or manage institutional flows in advance. Rack systems determine the flexibility of the tape. Overall liquidity governs the availability and cost of capital, which feeds the four elements.
When all five are aligned, the BTC is torn. When you misalign, the BTC is eliminated.
The era of ETFs has made Bitcoin more like a traditional risk asset with its own plumbing for cryptocurrencies. If Bitcoin reaches $3 trillion in market cap, it will be because all five signals are firing in the same direction.
