A shared seasonal snapshot is widely circulating before the end of the month: a Coinglass heat map of monthly Bitcoin returns, reposted by trader Daan Crypto Trades. The chart runs from 2013 to 2025 and features November as a statistical anomaly in the Bitcoin calendar – both for stunning gains and for sharp drawdowns in certain years.
Bitcoin November Preview
“November is the best month for Bitcoin based on historical performance,” Dan wrote on X, noting an average November change of +46.02% across the dataset. This number is clearly distorted by the November 2013 rally of +449.35%, the largest single monthly move on the board. He added: “The average gain over all these months is +46.02%. But this deviates strongly from the single monthly gain in November 2013. Bitcoin rose +449.35%!! in that month.”
Prime numbers support reputation without exaggeration. Of the 12 Novembers listed (2013-2024), 8 finished in the green — 2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%), while 4 were negative – 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).
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The average change in November is +10.82%, a more conservative central trend that weakens the effect of 2013. Excluding all of 2013, the simple average of November declines to approximately 9.35% over the remaining 11 years, highlighting how a single month can bias mean-based seasonality.
The context of the broader table is important. The November average is the highest of any month on the Coinglass network, ahead of the October average of +20.30%, while December shows a much more mixed profile with an average of +4.75% but a median of -3.22% – an imbalance consistent with the outside months.
The month of September, which has long been criticized by traders, maintains a negative average (-3.08%) over the entire period. The class of 2024 itself embodies the push and pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit gains in February, March, May, October, and November, offset by significant drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a negative December reading to close the year (-2.85%).
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Dan’s framing extends beyond simple seasonality. “November and December is where the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles peaked. It’s also where the 2018 and 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he noted. This observation is consistent with the historical inflection points that most market participants remember: the mania in late 2013 and the subsequent collapse, peak in December 2017, November 2021, all-time highAnd the washing operations in December 2018 and November 2022.
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The Coinglass network cannot pinpoint the highest highs or lows of the month, but the aggregation of major pivots in the last two months of the year is consistent with market folklore and with a pattern of returns that shows exceptionally strong bull months and some of the most punishing cycle months in this window.
The practical bottom line – again in Dan’s words – is not that Categorical ascensionBut system risks: “Overall, the last two months of the year were generally eventful. Whether it was on the upside or downside, volatility and the big market pivot were the main theme through the end of the year.” The heat map supports this characterization.
November’s distribution extends to the extremes on record – from +449.35% at the top to -36.57% on the downside – with a two-thirds multiplier for green months and average gains in the low double digits. By contrast, December produced cycle tops and bottoms despite modest averages, a reminder that average and median statistics can obscure the path risks that define Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.
Seasonality is not destiny, and the sample is limited. However, the data-backed message is clear: as November approaches, Bitcoin will rise Historical style It wasn’t so much about continuing the cool trend as it was about contrast—the kind that marked both euphoric bangs and submissive lows.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $114,487.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
