In November 2024, Ripple established a strong bullish dominance after XRP broke into the $2 region for the first time in its history. Since reclaiming this level, price action initially stabilized above $2 and later surged to an all-time high of $3.68.
This upward phase continued for more than a year.
However, as of December 15, the price of XRP fell below the $2 threshold, marking a shift towards increasing bearish dominance.
AMBCrypto has outlined the factors behind this reversal and what it could mean for the altcoin outlook.
Long-term investors are showing fading conviction
One of the first signs of building downward momentum came from long-term holders. These investors are defined as held addresses ripple [XRP] For more than 155 days without making any transaction.
Glassnode data showed that owners between five and seven years ago generated approximately $721.5 million in profits on December 11. At the time, XRP closed near $2.03, while the average cost basis was hovering around $0.40.
Source: Glassnode
When profit taking occurs with a wide gap between the cost basis and the market price, it indicates a lack of long-term conviction in the asset’s future upside.
Long-term shareholders are not alone in their decision to exit. Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen has been sold out Over 200 million XRP months ago.
As altcoin holders exit, concerns about the altcoin’s long-term bullish narrative have increased.
Institutional investors are pulling back
Institutional investors have also begun to pull back, as evidenced by the steady decline in buying activity over the past month.
US XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a sharp shift in flows. Buying volume fell from $246.05 million in November to just $8.54 million at the close of trading on December 16.
This represents a 96.49% decline in buying activity, highlighting deteriorating sentiment among traditional investors.
Source: Coinglass
Downward pressure also spread across the broader market.
XRP exchange reserves have risen to 2.66 billion tokens, indicating that more supply is readily available for potential sell-offs.
If these reserves enter the market, the price could face additional pressure below the $1.88 level at press time.
It is worth noting that institutional outflows began before retail sales. Retail traders appeared to react after long-term holders began exiting.
If this selling continues, downside risks could accelerate.
Whales remain largely inactive
Whales, investors who control large pools of liquidity capable of influencing market direction, have shown a muted response so far.
The Whale-to-Exchange Flow Meter, which tracks the volume of coins transferred between whale wallets and exchanges, dropped to zero. This suggests there is no significant whale-driven activity.
Source: Cryptoquant
The last noticeable movement of whales occurred on October 25. Soon after, the price of XRP dropped from around $2.6 to around $2.2.
Since then, the whales’ behavior has contrasted sharply with the active period from July to October. If whales resume moving money, historical patterns indicate renewed downside risks.
However, spot market data showed stronger buying activity. This demand helped stabilize XRP’s price action in the short term.
Final thoughts
- XRP’s recent weakness reflects a broader reset in confidence rather than a single catalyst.
- As long-term bondholders and institutions decline, the direction of prices may depend on whether new demand replaces existing supply.
